MLB.com's Top 50 Prospects

[McCovey]

MLB.com has come out with a top 50 prospects list. There are three Giant farmhands on the list (Bumgarner, Posey, and Villalona). I was very surprised that Tim Alderson was not on that list. That doesn't make sense to me. Villalona is on the list but Alderson isn't? :shrug: Anyway, here are the scouting reports with some video on all three from that list.

Madison Bumgarner (#6)
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/minorleagues/prospects/y2009/profile.jsp?t=p_top&pid=518516 (http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/minorleagues/prospects/y2009/profile.jsp?t=p_top&pid=518516)

Buster Posey (#19)
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/minorleagues/prospects/y2009/profile.jsp?t=p_top&pid=457763 (http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/minorleagues/prospects/y2009/profile.jsp?t=p_top&pid=457763)

Angel Villalona (#48)
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/minorleagues/prospects/y2009/profile.jsp?t=p_top&pid=505830 (http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/minorleagues/prospects/y2009/profile.jsp?t=p_top&pid=505830)

[Bear]

Who are the fools that make up this list? :buttkick:

[McCovey]

Who are the fools that make up this list? :buttkick:
Not sure. The list is pretty good except for Alderson not being on the list.

[TkleMstr52]

Hey, when is the last time three Giants farmhands made the list?? :eek:He should be there but I can live with those three!! :DAs good as I hope Angel to be, is that a surprise to anyone else?

[TkleMstr52]

Man, they have Alderson at 59? What is that?:nono:
Giants 3 A's 2!!!!!! Oh yeah:cool:

[Bear]

Hey, when is the last time three Giants farmhands made the list?? :eek:He should be there but I can live with those three!! :DAs good as I hope Angel to be, is that a surprise to anyone else?

Not to me because every report I have read on this guy is he is as close to a can't miss player as there is in the game today. A true man child. He will play in the ML before he turns 20 I am sure.;)

[McCovey]

Not to me because every report I have read on this guy is he is as close to a can't miss player as there is in the game today. A true man child. He will play in the ML before he turns 20 I am sure.;)
I was surprised because Alderson is considered to be right their with Bumgarner in terms of upside. If Bumgarner is listed as the #6 prospect in all of baseball then logically you would think Alderson would easily be in the top 25, let alone, the top 50.

[McCovey]

Man, they have Alderson at 59? What is that?:nono:
Giants 3 A's 2!!!!!! Oh yeah:cool:
What list are you referring to? :shrug: The MLB.com list only has the top 50.

[TkleMstr52]

It had a just missed list and he was #59, it was titled Top50 Prospects: behind the numbers!!

[TkleMstr52]

Not to me because every report I have read on this guy is he is as close to a can't miss player as there is in the game today. A true man child. He will play in the ML before he turns 20 I am sure.;)


I hope you are right Bear!! That would be great!!:beerbang:

[McCovey]

It had a just missed list and he was #59, it was titled Top50 Prospects: behind the numbers!!

Ok, I found it! Here is the list.



Just missed the cut
It's always interesting to see who just missed cracking the Top 50. There are usually some pretty good names there. Last year's No. 51 was Jason Heyward, who now stands at No. 3. Brett Anderson, this year's No. 13, was down at 52 a year ago. Being in this next group of 10 may not get the attention the main list draws, but these are all players worth watching.



51. Justin Smoak, 1B, Rangers
52. Logan Morrison, OF/1B, Marlins
53. Daniel Cortes, RHP, Royals
54. Jordan Walden, RHP, Angels
55. Ivan DeJesus, SS, Dodgers
56. Aaron Poreda, LHP, White Sox
57. Brett Cecil, LHP, Blue Jays
58. J.P. Arencibia, C, Blue Jays
59. Tim Alderson, RHP, Giants
60. Aaron Hicks, OF, Twins

[McCovey]

I ran across this from Baseball America. Look who is in the top 4?! :beerbang:


Ask BA by Jim Callis

January 12, 2009

While the Hall of Fame interests me, I can't get too worked up about it. Rickey Henderson obviously belongs. I'm not sure I would have voted for Jim Rice, but he doesn't ruin Cooperstown. I would have voted for Bert Blyleven and Tim Raines, who didn't get in, but that won't keep me up at nights. As upset as some people get about the inclusions and exclusions, baseball still has the most meaningful Hall of Fame of any of the major sports.

I've been getting a lot of questions about the 2009 Prospect Handbook (http://www.baseballamerica.com/store/store.cgi?browse=cat_books#111), which is expected to ship next week. If you haven't ordered one yet, here's an incentive to do so directly from us. Everyone who buys the book from Baseball America will get a bonus insert with detailed scouting reports on each team's No. 31 prospect, to accompany the Top 30s that appear in the book.


I enjoyed reading your list of the American League's top 10 prospects in the Dec. 22 Ask BA (http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/ask-ba/2008/267360.html). Who do you think are the 10 best prospects in the National League?

Ernie Monaco
Milford, N.J.

When I put together my overall Top 50 for the Handbook, the top two choices were easy: Rays lefthander David Price and Orioles catcher Matt Wieters. After that, it got more murky, though I eventually settled on Pirates third baseman Pedro Alvarez as my No. 3 prospect, making him tops on my NL list.

1. Pedro Alvarez, 3b, Pirates
Spring injury, summer holdout overshadow his devastating hitting ability.

2. Madison Bumgarner, lhp, Giants
Showed much more polish than expected in first full season, led minors with 1.46 ERA.

3. Colby Rasmus, of, Cardinals
The best player developed by St. Louis since Albert Pujols is ready for the majors at 22.

4. Buster Posey, c, Giants
Has the tools to become the NL's version of Joe Mauer.

5. Tommy Hanson, rhp, Braves
Displayed four plus pitches at times while blowing away Arizona Fall League hitters.

6. Logan Morrison, 1b, Marlins
The best hitter in the minors who hasn't received the hype he deserves.
7. Jason Heyward, of, Braves
It's still unfathomable how he lasted 14 picks in the 2007 draft.

8. Dexter Fowler, of, Rockies
Colorado has done a fine job of developing the once-raw Fowler.

9. Cameron Maybin, of, Marlins
Strikeouts are still a concern, but there's a lot of Andre Dawson in him.

10. Mike Stanton, of, Marlins
Hit 39 homers in first full season after turning down a shot to play two sports at USC.

[TkleMstr52]

Dats right man!!:bananadance:

[TkleMstr52]

I wish the Giants had Maybin!!

[McCovey]

Keith Law lust released his top 100 Minor League Prospects List. This Giants have four prospects in the top 34! That's impressive. :beerbang:

#6. Masison Bumbarner
#8. Buster Posey
#26. Tim Alderson
#34. Angel Villalona

Here is what Law said about all four of them.


Madison Bumgarner, #6
year ago, Bumgarner was a live arm, a projectable body, and a name to file away for the future. He only started throwing breaking balls late in his high school career, and the rudimentary secondary stuff plus his low arm slot had scouts -- including me -- assuming he was a long way away from the majors. His slider made enormous strides in his first full year in pro ball, and his changeup is now solid-average, no small feat for a pitcher who throws from a low 3/4 slot. He's unusual for pitchers of his ilk in that his arm action is fairly short and compact; many pitchers who throw from below 3/4 get long in the back, almost slinging the ball, and have trouble turning over a changeup or staying on top of breaking balls as a result. His command and control are both above-average, and he was aggressive in going after South Atlantic League hitters, who stood little chance against him. The Giants were careful with Bumgarner in 2008, but there's a good chance he finishes this year in Double-A and shows up in the majors at some point in 2010.

Buster Posey, #8
Posey presents a very balanced set of tools that, given his position, make him among the most valuable properties in the minor leagues. A recent convert from shortstop who also pitched a little in college, Posey is a plus defensive catcher with a plus arm (he pitched in the low 90s), soft hands, and a lot of energy at a position that demands it. At the plate, he has a compact stroke, excellent bat control, and a good eye, so while he doesn't project to hit for more than average power, he should make plenty of hard contact and end up a doubles hitter with 15-20 home runs per year. The combination of a projected plus hit tool and currently plus defense make him a very high-probability prospect -- he plays in the big leagues no matter what, be it as a quality backup if he never improves at all or as a star everyday catcher if he reaches his offensive ceiling.

Tim Alderson, #26
Alderson was one of only two high school pitchers from the 2007 draft to start the year in high-A -- Rick Porcello was the other -- and he had the added challenge of pitching in the hitter-friendly California League, although San Jose is itself a pitcher's park within that circuit. He spent the entire year there at age 19 and was outstanding, ending the season on a six-start run where he walked one batter over 37 innings while fanning 28. He sits with a solid-average fastball at 90-94 mph with the promise of more velocity in the future, and his hard curveball is already plus, with tight rotation and a late two-plane break. With Bumgarner making so much progress with his secondary stuff, he's passed Alderson for a couple of reasons. One is Alderson's funky delivery; he lands on a slightly stiff front leg, and to get the ball to his glove side, he ends up throwing across his body due to a low arm slot. His changeup really hasn't progressed through one year in pro ball, leaving him vulnerable to lefties. The delivery works, so the Giants aren't likely to alter it; if the changeup improves at all with use, his plus-plus command and out-pitch breaking ball give him the upside of a No. 2 or 3 starter.

Angel Villalona, #34
It may be unfair to drop Villalona this far, given his youth, but we do have more insight now into just how raw of a prospect he is. Villalona played almost all of 2008 at age 17, and was the youngest player in the full-season Sally League, where he showed plenty of power but also demonstrated problems with pitch recognition that aren't going to go away if he's just pushed up the ladder. Villalona can murder a fastball or any mistake in his hitting zone, but he struggles with anything soft and away and with better off-speed stuff. Once he's behind in the count, he's not coming back. He drew just 15 unintentional walks this year in exactly 500 plate appearances (but was walked intentionally three times, so he was clearly feared). He's not all-or-nothing, as he has a pretty wide hitting zone and can adjust a little bit to some breaking balls. The Giants have already moved him to first base -- no small task -- and conditioning will always be a concern, as he's thick-bodied already and was not in great shape for spring training in 2008. He would just now be entering his senior spring if he had been born in the U.S., and yet already has a year and a half under his belt in pro ball, so we can't evaluate him by the same standards we might use for other hitters. The upside is still there and is tremendous -- four- or five-hole hitter, lots of power, probably never a good OBP -- but it's going to take some time. This is my concern with Villalona. His poor plate discipline may hinder him throughout his career.

[TkleMstr52]

He is just 18, if the Giants staff cant help him on his plate discipline while he is still moldable, then they dont deserve thier jobs.:nono: I think they have them for good reason tho!!:beerbang:

[TkleMstr52]

JT had an obp nearly 100 points higher than his avg, would he make a good hitting coach for all these youngsters without discipline?

[McCovey]

He is just 18, if the Giants staff cant help him on his plate discipline while he is still moldable, then they dont deserve thier jobs.:nono: I think they have them for good reason tho!!:beerbang:
The ability to draw lots of walks is not really a teachable skill according to the several hitting instructors I've spoken to. In '08 Villalona had 18 walks, of which 15 were unintentional. How can a hitter draw just 15 walks in a season is beyond me. But if Villalona can pan out he could be another Andres Galarraga, another hitter that refused to talk a walk. I just don't think Villalona is destined to be a superstar hitter but merely a very good one.

Post #1,800!

[TkleMstr52]

If its something he can work on himself with experience and age then I think he will turn this around, I believe is taking more walks these days?

[TkleMstr52]

He was 17-18 during last season, maybe the reason he didnt walk was they didnt know who he was but said to themselves, these guy is too young to hit my stuff and threw strikes? With time they will learn who he is and he will walk more because he can hit. On one of the telecasts last season the guys were saying you have to prove you can hit before you will consistantly draw walks. Like I said tho, I havent seen him in action so this could just be bs.

[McCovey]

He was 17-18 during last season, maybe the reason he didnt walk was they didnt know who he was but said to themselves, these guy is too young to hit my stuff and threw strikes? With time they will learn who he is and he will walk more because he can hit. On one of the telecasts last season the guys were saying you have to prove you can hit before you will consistantly draw walks. Like I said tho, I havent seen him in action so this could just be bs.
Here you go.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wcwayQW1ygc

[TkleMstr52]

Hey, he not only crushed that ball, it looks like he can scoot a little!! Thanks Mc, Damn I look forward to seeing this guy live!!

[TkleMstr52]

Youtube is great but allthe videos are no longer available on this guy!!

[McCovey]

Someone asked Baseball America's Jim Callis to compare Madison Bumgarner to David Price.



How do lefties David Price (Rays) and Madison Bumgarner (Giants) compare? Who has the higher upside and how do individual pitches match up against each other?

Rich Gauger
Marshfield, Mass.

Bumgarner went 10th overall in the 2007 draft, while Price went first. Bumgarner led the minor leagues in ERA last season, but Price won Game Two and saved Game Seven of the American League Championship Series. Bumgarner is the No. 2 pitching prospect in baseball . . . behind only Price.

Bumgarner is a tremendous prospect with huge upside, but Price is on another level. He's a once-in-a-generation pitching prospect whose stuff, polish and makeup combine to make him as can't-miss as a pitcher can be. I can't remember a lefthanded pitching prospect as good as Price in the 20 years I've been covering baseball—Brien Taylor wasn't nearly this refined—and he has to be the best going to back at least as far as Floyd Bannister, the No. 1 overall pick in the 1976 draft.

Bumgarner and Price have comparable fastballs. Both throw in the mid-90s with excellent life and command. Price, who's four years older, separates himself with his secondary pitches. The Red Sox looked helpless against Price's upper-80s slider in the playoffs, and while Bumgarner made a lot of strides with his slider last year, it's not as consistently devastating. Neither has needed to rely on a changeup much to this point in their careers, though Price's has more deception and fade.

Bumgarner has the potential to be a No. 1 starter. Price's career still has to unfold, but reaching the Hall of Fame seems like a reasonable goal.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/ask-ba/2009/267521.html
I think Callis is a bit biased. The Hall of Fame is a reasonable goal for Price?! :pound: Price is a great young pitcher but, c'mon, he has barely 14 innings of major league experience. :rolleyes: Also, Price is four years older than MadBum. That's a big gap in terms of development at this stage of both player's careers. I think a more fair comparsion is how does a 20 year old MadBum compare to a 20 year old David Price.

[TkleMstr52]

I dont think I would take anyone over an 18 yo who led the minors in era in a hitters league.

[TkleMstr52]

Price did his job but wasnt overly impressive in doing so. The Rays are my second team ever since Crawford was a Rook, so I am not fully biased. They do things the way I like, with youth and a little vet presence. Price may end up great, but last I checked there is no real cant miss prospects.

[#25]

Price is in a class of his own. He is an Elite pitcher.

[TkleMstr52]

I am not anointing him. How much have you seen this guy pitch?

[Bear]

Price is in a class of his own. He is an Elite pitcher.

I can't see how you can say this. No one has seen this guy pitch more than a few weeks in the majors. Wait until they have seen him a few times and then we will see how good he is.:rolleyes:

[McCovey]

I can't see how you can say this. No one has seen this guy pitch more than a few weeks in the majors. Wait until they have seen him a few times and then we will see how good he is.:rolleyes:
Well according to Price's statistics he's very very good...:pound:

[Bear]

Well according to Price's statistics he's very very good...:pound:

Her we go again.:eek:

[McCovey]

Her we go again.:eek:
Ok how about a quick scouting report instead and some video of Price?

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/minorleagues/prospects/y2009/profile.jsp?t=p_top&pid=456034

[TkleMstr52]

How about he gets a full season under his belt, then he can be an opening day starter.

[Bear]

How about he gets a full season under his belt, then he can be an opening day starter.

Thats my point. Lets see what this guy can do for an entire season!

[TkleMstr52]

Same page here:beerbang:

[Bear]

Great minds think alike!:beerbang:

[TkleMstr52]

So ive heard:bananadance:

[#25]

You non-believers. You will see.

[McCovey]

I think we can all agree that Price has NASTY stuff, is poised, and has great potential. He has everything you'd want in a staff ace. Now he just has to show it in the majors. I suspect he will.

[#25]

I think we can all agree that Price has NASTY stuff, is poised, and has great potential. He has everything you'd want in a staff ace. Now he just has to show it in the majors. I suspect he will.

You and me both.

[TkleMstr52]

Poise yes, Nasty, wait until they see his stuff a few more times then we will know how nasty it is. They will adjust and we will see if he can as well.

[#25]

He is nasty all right, and they won't hit him in 2009 either.

[TkleMstr52]

This guy!! You are crazy. Naw, this guy will have a 4.3 era. Which is respectable as a rook. You nor anyone else has seen his stuff enough to think he will dominate the big league hitters. 14 innings and he is already the next coming? whooeee

[McCovey]

This guy!! You are crazy. Naw, this guy will have a 4.3 era. Which is respectable as a rook. You nor anyone else has seen his stuff enough to think he will dominate the big league hitters. 14 innings and he is already the next coming? whooeee
Oh you mean like Tim Lincecum and his 4.00 ERA in '07? :D

[TkleMstr52]

Who predicted that?

[McCovey]

Who predicted that?
Huh? :shrug:

[TkleMstr52]

I never said he wont be good, just noone knows for sure based on what he has done so far. Lincecum came out of nowhere to do what he did.

[McCovey]

I never said he wont be good, just noone knows for sure based on what he has done so far. Lincecum came out of nowhere to do what he did.
I wouldn't say Lincecum came out of nowhere. He was highly touted out of college, was lights out in the minors, and had brilliant stretches in '07. I think Price will have a similar start to his career. I think in '09 he'll be solid, maybe an ERA in mid to high 3's, easily over 200 Ks, and maybe 13-15 wins.

[Bear]

I wouldn't say Lincecum came out of nowhere. He was highly touted out of college, was lights out in the minors, and had brilliant stretches in '07. I think Price will have a similar start to his career. I think in '09 he'll be solid, maybe an ERA in mid to high 3's, easily over 200 Ks, and maybe 13-15 wins.

With those numbers he will make a lot of money in his career.

[TkleMstr52]

I think Price will have a similar start to his career. I think in '09 he'll be solid, maybe an ERA in mid to high 3's, easily over 200 Ks, and maybe 13-15 wins.

King Felix was the last Rook I heard that was this highly thought of and as a Rook he had a 4.5 era. That is a bold prediction, I apologize fellas I am being near sighted. I just want to see him more before I make these kinds of statements. I saw LIncecum in '07 and was really looking forward to his full season last year!! I didnt expect Cy Young but I knew he was special.

[McCovey]

King Felix was the last Rook I heard that was this highly thought of and as a Rook he had a 4.5 era. That is a bold prediction, I apologize fellas I am being near sighted. I just want to see him more before I make these kinds of statements. I saw LIncecum in '07 and was really looking forward to his full season last year!! I didnt expect Cy Young but I knew he was special.
One difference is that Felix Hernandex was just 20 years old in his rookie year. Davide Price will be 23 during the '09 season.


POST 1,900!

[TkleMstr52]

Age aside he was talked of just as highly. Price will struggle and look good at times, as rooks do in all leagues.

[McCovey]

Age aside he was talked of just as highly. Price will struggle and look good at times, as rooks do in all leagues.
Well age is key factor in this comparison. Also, Price will be pitching for the defending American League champions while the Mariners were a last place team in Hernandez's rookie season.

[TkleMstr52]

ERA isnt a team stat. His era is on him.

[McCovey]

ERA isnt a team stat. His era is on him.
Actually it is somewhat. A team's defense has some influence on a pitcher's ERA especially defense up the middle.

[TkleMstr52]

We will agree to disagree then. Range is the only factor in this. I dont think Seattles problem was Range, errors and poor team chemistry was.

[McCovey]

We will agree to disagree then. Range is the only factor in this. I dont think Seattles problem was Range, errors and poor team chemistry was.
Though errors are not he best way to evaluate defense let's look at errors. During Hernandez's rookie season the M's made just 88 errors which was the 4th lowest total in the AL that season.

66 Red Sox
84 A's
84 Twins
88 Mariners
90 White Sox
98 Royals
98 Rangers
99 Blue Jays
102 Orioles
104 Yankees
106 Tigers
116 D-Rays
118 Indians
124 Angels

[TkleMstr52]

Guess which finger Im holding up??:pound:

[McCovey]

Guess which finger Im holding up??:pound:
:confused:

[TkleMstr52]

Nevermind Mc. Good points made above.:awesomework.gif

[McCovey]

Scout.com has released their top 100 prospects. Again the Giants "Big Four" are in the top half. :beerbang:

#12- Madison Bumgarner
#17- Angel Villalona
#25- Buster Posey
#47- Tim Alderson

http://sfgiants.scout.com/a.z?s=316&p=9&c=12&nid=287&lnid=287&pid=88&yr=2009

[TkleMstr52]

Does anyone have any solid info as to a look at the future for these kids??

[McCovey]

Does anyone have any solid info as to a look at the future for these kids??
Which kids? :shrug:

[TkleMstr52]

#12- Madison Bumgarner
#17- Angel Villalona
#25- Buster Posey
#47- Tim Alderson
I want more info on these guys but am not extremely computer literate and therefore cant find much. Other than what I read on here and the info I got from the prospect handbook.

[McCovey]

#12- Madison Bumgarner
#17- Angel Villalona
#25- Buster Posey
#47- Tim Alderson
I want more info on these guys but am not extremely computer literate and therefore cant find much. Other than what I read on here and the info I got from the prospect handbook.
Well we have a 22 page, and counting, Buster Posey thread. That's a good place to start. :)

[TkleMstr52]

Ive read all that, I want more!!:pound: